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How the Maharashtra elections could influence the Indian stock market?

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The summary clearly analyzes how the Maharashtra elections could influence the Indian stock market. It touches on crucial points: Policy Continuity vs. Uncertainty : Markets favor predictability. A BJP-led victory will likely ensure ongoing policies focused on infrastructure, which investors see positively. Conversely, shifting to Congress-led governance might introduce temporary uncertainty as markets evaluate potential policy changes. Sectoral Shifts : Maharashtra's economic importance means election outcomes could directly impact key sectors. For instance, infrastructure and real estate might react based on government priorities and policy directions. FPI Activity and Market Trends : The pullback by FPIs in recent months highlights global factors, but local political clarity—especially favoring business-friendly governance—could help stabilize market sentiment. Broader global market trends remain critical in shaping overall movements. ALSO READ,  Benefits of Tax plan...

Monetary Policy by RBI !! What's that ?

In order to build up economic activity that had suffered because of the Covid-19 related lockdown, the bank of India (RBI) bog down repo rate by 0.4% on 22nd May 2020. Earlier, in March 2020 further, the RBI had cut repo rate by a steep 0.75%, to stimulate growth. within the same month, the US Federal Reserve System had cut the benchmark rates by 1% to 0.25% to assist the economy recover. Recently the FRS also stated that it'll hold its benchmark rate near zero through 2022, to assist the economy pass through the coronavirus crisis.   




Keeping these developments in mind, and also the questions that include it, this text hopes to raze monetary policy and therefore the relevance of the repo rate for you!


What is monetary policy?

Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the central bank of the country (Reserve Bank of India – in India’s case) to ensure maximum possible employment, stable prices & foreign exchange rates, and maintain a moderate level of interest rate, in the long run, allowing for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.




Since the Covid-19 related lockdown started in late March 2020, consumer spending has dropped drastically. Infrastructure output, similarly as industrial output, has also been hit. Moreover, social distancing and therefore the fast-spreading virus also forced most other countries across the planet to lock itself down, leading to a decline in India’s exports by 36.5% during May 2020. This steep decline in aggregate demand caused a big rise in unemployment during April and will of 2020. From the government’s perspective, the simplest thanks to handle this example is by adopting an expansionary monetary policy geared toward increasing economic activity thereby achieving a better rate of growth. A contractionary monetary policy, on the opposite hand, aims at lowering the rate by reducing the money circulating within the economy.

How do central banks conduct monetary policy?

Central banks can adopt an expansionary or contractionary policy in 2 ways. Either by influencing money supply or by changing the interest rate payable on very short term borrowings.

These items (Money supply and interest rates) can be influenced by one or a combination of the below tactics –

Open market operations


  • These operations involve central banks buying or selling Government bonds and treasury bills within the open market with the target of influencing monetary resource, thereby affecting short term interest rates.
  • RBI buying securities from banks will lead to extra money within the hands of banks. These banks will then lend the identical to retail and institutional investors thereby increasing the provision of cash within the economy. Since banks are flushed with cash, lending takes place at a lower rate. 
  • A lower charge per unit will dissuade consumers from saving and boost spending. Business loans also become cheaper and investors can borrow and invest, thereby boosting economic process.  
  • Contrary thereto, when the RBI sells securities within the open market, banks invest within the same. Hence banks are left with a smaller pile of money to lend to retail and institutional investors, scaling down the availability of cash within the economy.


Monetary Policy by RBI


Reserve Requirements


  1. Central banks set the minimum amount of reserves that commercial banks must hold with the financial organization. this can be commonly mentioned because of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). 
  2. It is specified as a percentage of the online demand and time liabilities of the bank. Time liability refers to the deposits that require to be returned to the customer after a specified period, whereas demand liability is that the money that's repayable to the depositors on demand. So, as an example, a hard and fast deposit during a bank could be a time liability, whereas a savings deposit could be a demand liability. 
  3. Let’s understand this using an example – suppose the financial institution sets the CRR at 3%. Let’s assume that full-service bank A has ₹1000 cr worth of demand and time liabilities on its record. Now A has got to put aside ₹30 crores (3% * 1000) as a reserve; this amount can not be lent out as a loan.
  4. If the RBI decides to decrease the CRR then a lesser amount of cash will have to be held as reserve and money is freed up to lend. This has the identical effect as RBI buying securities in open market operations. 
  5. An increase in CRR has the other effect and holds back money from the system.

Monetary Policy by RBI



Discount Rate Manipulation


  • Before jumping into discussing discount rates, it's important to know the role of the financial organisation because the lender of pis aller.
    Individuals and businesses in an exceedingly country approach banks for his or her emergency still as non-emergency funding needs.
  • On a daily basis, banks are ready to manage their funding needs via demand and time liabilities in addition to via issuing debt and equity.
  • However during times of monetary turmoil, when banks face liquidity problems, they need the choice of borrowing from the financial organisation of the country. Hence the RBI is that the lender of expedient in India.
  • In order to make sure that commercial banks are able to borrow money on a brief-term basis, RBI has founded a special discount window called the “Liquidity Adjustment Facility”. This facility allows banks and other primary dealers to manage their liquidity needs.

  • This facility uses the repurchase (REPO) choice to lend or borrow money when necessary.

  1. A repo transaction has 2 counterparties, a seller of securities and a buyer of the identical. Let’s assume that the vendor is bank A and also the buyer is that the RBI.
  2. Bank A needs emergency funds of ₹ 100 crore and hence approaches RBI and proposes that the latter buy securities worth ₹ 100 crore from the previous. RBI agrees to buy the securities at ₹ 100 crore provided A promises to repurchase the identical from RBI in 1 month at ₹ 100.5 crore.
  3. Here the Bank A is that the repo borrower and sells the securities, RBI is that the repo lender and buys the securities. the extra ₹ 0.5 crore that RBI gets at the tip of 1 month is that the interest charge. This translates to an annualized repo rate of 6% and is that the rate charged by RBI to lend money to banks and other institutions. Similarly, reverse repo is that the rate paid by RBI for money parked with it by banks and other institutions.
  4. The RBI decides repo and reverse repo rate in India. Currently, the repo rate stands at 4% and therefore the reverse repo rate stands at 3.35%.
  5. Now that we understand what a repo rate is, let’s try how the repo rate is manipulated to alter the cash supply within the economy.
  6. Apart from affecting the rate of inflation, movement in repo rate features a significant impact on liquidity within the market. When the repo rate is marked down, banks can borrow additional funds at lower rates – as a result of this, businesses and individuals can borrow at lower rates, leading to a probability of upper GDP rate.
  7. It is during this context, with a view to boosting economic process, that the RBI has cut the repo rate by 2.25% since Feb 2019.

What if REPO rates are zero?

Repo rates within the USA were weighed down near zero in September 2008 during the financial crisis. German repo rates also moved near zero in Sept 2014 and have stayed flat since.
In the earlier section, we saw that Central banks adopt measures like open market operations, decreasing reserve requirement or cutting repo rate to make sure that the interest rates within the market go down, spurring economic activity. However, now that the interest rates are already at near zero,

 what can the financial organization do to spur economic growth?


This is when Quantitative Easing (QE) comes into the image. This policy is specifically deployed when interest rates are near zero and therefore the conventional tool of expansionary monetary policy has failed. The quality policy would have failed for multiple reasons, however, the tip result's that banks are going to be reluctant to lend money to businesses and individuals. In such a situation the financial organisation starts buying securities from banks moreover as other financial institutions with the intention of pumping in additional money into the economy. The key difference between an open market operation and quantitative easing is that, within the former situation, central banks will buy only short term Government bonds and treasury bills.

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However within the latter scenario, one among the items that Central banks will do is to shop for riskier assets like mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps etc. this can lead to lowering the chance of economic bank’s balance sheets, allowing these banks to lend more. Further central banks also buy more long run Government securities; this may lead to the worth of such securities mounting because of higher demand and yield on such securities coming down. By pushing down the yield on such securities, Central banks discourage commercial banks from buying these bonds by borrowing money at the near-zero short term rate.

Monetary Policy by RBI

Quantitative easing affects the economy in multiple ways :

  • By buying riskier securities from banks likewise as other financial institutions and pushing down the yield on long-run Government bonds, QE makes it profitable for banks to deploy money via loans to businesses and individuals.
  • Since the interest rates are low, the govt is ready to borrow money from the markets at a lower rate and spend the identical on capital formation activity.
  • Capital tends to manoeuvre out of a low-interest economy to higher rate regimes. This ends up in selling of the local currency, leading to its depreciation. A weaker currency will make the local goods cheaper in international markets thereby helping exporters.
  • Quantitative easing is built as forward guidance regarding the rate of interest level. In a QE, the financial organisation purchases large amounts of risky also as risk-free securities. If the short term rates are suddenly increased, then the worth of those securities will fall leading to loss to the financial institution. Hence market participants are assured that the interest rates won't be increased within the near term.

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Comments

  1. The great thing about this post is quality information. I always like to read amazingly useful and quality content. Your article is amazing, thank you for sharing this article.
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