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How the Maharashtra elections could influence the Indian stock market?

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The summary clearly analyzes how the Maharashtra elections could influence the Indian stock market. It touches on crucial points: Policy Continuity vs. Uncertainty : Markets favor predictability. A BJP-led victory will likely ensure ongoing policies focused on infrastructure, which investors see positively. Conversely, shifting to Congress-led governance might introduce temporary uncertainty as markets evaluate potential policy changes. Sectoral Shifts : Maharashtra's economic importance means election outcomes could directly impact key sectors. For instance, infrastructure and real estate might react based on government priorities and policy directions. FPI Activity and Market Trends : The pullback by FPIs in recent months highlights global factors, but local political clarity—especially favoring business-friendly governance—could help stabilize market sentiment. Broader global market trends remain critical in shaping overall movements. ALSO READ,  Benefits of Tax plan...

15th May's MORNING NEWSLETTER .


Good Morning!

Liquidity is nothing but a short-term supply mismatch adjustment. It is not new money coming into the hands of the consumers. Liquidity is not something that is going to alter GDP growth of the nation. What the Modi government is currently doling out is a combination of liquidity and some real money, but it's more of the first. When the April rally was building up to this big package, expectations were more for the second and sector-specific doles to the badly battered parts of the economy. The current package offers no clarity which segments will benefit from it, which is why the market has lost direction.


MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 16 points down at 7 am (IST) in signs that Dalal Street is indecisive amid lack of directional cues

    On Thursday, Nifty50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart. Such a chart following Wednesday's 'Bearish Belt Hold' pattern suggests the bears were in the driver's seat. Analysts said the index may face resistance breaching the 9,250 level while it may find some support near the 9,050 level.

    F&O data showed major Put writing at 8,500 followed by 8,800 levels, and Call writing at 9,500 followed by 9,300 levels. They indicated an immediate trading range between 8,800 and 9,500 levels. India VIX slipped 1.67% to 38.18 level. Analysts said higher volatility could continue to keep Nifty on a roller-coaster ride.

    Elsewhere in Asia, equities drifted as investors took stock of data that offered a mixed picture on China’s post-lockdown economic recovery. Shares slipped in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul, fluctuated in Shanghai, and saw modest gains in Sydney.

    Wall Street rallied back from a sharp morning drop on Thursday, led by a resurgence for some of the year’s most beaten-down stocks. S&P500 rose 32.50 points,Dow 377.37 points and the Nasdaq 80.55 points

    Oil prices were mixed on Friday after big gains a day earlier when the IEA predicted crude stockpiles would start to shrink in second-half 2020. Brent crude was up 1 cent at $31.13 a barrel after rising nearly 7% on Thursday, while WTI oil was down 13 cents, or 0.5%, at $27.43

    The rupee slipped 10 paise to close at 75.56 against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking weak domestic equities.

    The dollar eased from a three-week high on Friday but looked set for a modest weekly gain. Against a basket of currencies the dollar is up about 0.5% this week.

LOOK WHO'S 

FM's helping hand to migrants... Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled measures aimed at benefiting migrant workers, farmers, street vendors and the urban poor in the second installment of economic measures aimed reviving the economy that’s been grounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. The support measures totalling Rs 2.46 lakh crore include free foodgrain, credit support and a new affordable rental housing scheme and seek to provide concessional credit to farmers and street vendors, and mandate an expeditious switchover to ‘one nation, one ration card’ to ensure continuous supply of foodgrain for the poor even if they change their place of residence.

Public shareholding limit eased... Sebi has eased the 25% minimum public shareholding norm for listed companies in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak. The regulator relaxed the requirement for companies that were to have complied with the rule between March 1 and August 31. At present, stock exchanges and depositories are mandated to take action against listed companies that don’t meet the minimum public shareholding norms.

Bond yields cool off... Corporate bond yields in India declined on Thursday and are on course to soften further, with this week’s federal measures expect to boost growth and restrain government debt from bloating. The spread between top-rated corporate bonds and government papers — a barometer of calmness -- narrowed to 80-90 basis points, compared with 90-100 bps a few days earlier. On Thursday, top-rated corporate bonds led the broad-based rally as yields fell 10-15 basis points across the board, outpacing the decline in comparative sovereign bonds. 


Wholesale food inflation eases... India’s wholesale food inflation slowed to 3.6% in April from 5.49% a month earlier, official data showed on Thursday, even as the government suspended the release of the headline wholesale inflation number as the nationwide lockdown has disrupted data collection. Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), was 1% in March, down from 2.26% in February.

AND WHO'S 

Firms struggle to resume operations... With the country still under lockdown and suppliers and dealers only partially open, auto, steel, cement, component makers and engineering firms are struggling to streamline production, with output barely touching 20% of capacity. Work at factories has resumed in tough conditions: Demand is yet to revive, labour availability is limited and new safety and health norms have to be enforced in the workplace.

Pandemic may wipe off 10% of world GDP... Global economic losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic could be between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion this year, the Asian Development Bank said on Friday, more than double its earlier estimates as containment measures paralyse economies. The ADB’s forecast, equal to 6.4% to 9.7% of global gross domestic product, was worse than projections in April when it said the global economy could suffer between $2.0 trillion and $4.1 trillion in losses.

Mallya loses UK appeal… Vijay Mallya has lost his application to appeal against his extradition in the UK Supreme Court and could be sent to India within the next 28 days. With no legal remedy left in the UK, Mallya can still approach European Court of Human Rights on the grounds that he won’t receive a fair trial in India.


Meanwhile...

FMCG firms want labour policy eased... India’s top consumer goods companies like HUL, Nestle, PepsiCo, Parle Products, Britannia, ITC and Mondelez have written to the government seeking clearances to run facilities with a 75% cap on worker deployment in green and orange zones, and a 50-60% cap in red zones against the current cap of 33%. They also sought relief from the Factories Act and requested that governments clear 12-hour work days with overtime pay, against the stipulated eight hours, in all states.

The DAY PLANNER

Q4 Earnings: Tata Chemicals | Cipla | Crompton | L&T Finance | M&M Finance
China April Industrial Output (07.30 am)
China April Unemployment Rate (07.30 am)
RBI's May-end forex reserve (05.00 pm)
India Balance of Trade (06.00 pm)
Euro Area March Balance of Trade (02.30 pm)
US April Industrial Output (06.45 pm)

THANK YOU ..

HAPPY TRADING !!! 

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